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August 31, 2007

What does September hold for the Dow?

Filed under: Uncategorized — Prieur du Plessis @ 2:26 pm

The chart below, courtesy of Chart of the Day, illustrates the Dow Jones Industrial Index’s average performance for each calendar month since 1950 (blue bars) and 1980 (gray bars) respectively. While the strongest upward movement in stocks has historically occurred during the November to January period, September has proven to be the most difficult month for stocks. It is interesting to note how since 1980 the average gain for September has remained negative despite the fact that most of this period included a strong bull market. 

 chart-of-the-day-31-august-2007.jpg

Source: Chart of the Day 

These results are consistent  with one of my earlier studies showing that the best time to be invested in equities is the six months from early November to the end of April, while the “bad” periods normally occur over the six months from May to October.

Let’s see whether September 2007 stacks up in accordance with the historical picture.

Urban Design & Development, Forbes Lofts, Davis Square Lofts – James Bill – When Clients Don’t Pay

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 4:38 am

We’ve all had the unfortunate experience of a client that doesn’t pay. You can have a handshake, oral or written contract and you’ll always get a client that doesn’t pay. Our client, that one that never paid is Urban Design and Development in Somerville MA: 

You may know them from the Davis Square Lofts  in Somerville, MA

 dsquarelogo.jpg

or their other location Forbes Lofts, Forbes Park in Chelsea, MA.

 forbes.gif

Here is a quote from their web site:  Urban Design & Development is a group of multi-disciplined designers based in Somerville, Massachusetts. Best known for the recent conversion of the M.W. Carr and Comfort Pillow factories into the Davis Square Lofts, the main office is located within this creative, mixed-use community. Together, the company has the unique ability to manage all aspects of our projects, including financing, designing, building, marketing and managing, to insure that our vision is delivered as promised.

You can contact them here:

Developer

Urban Design & Development
Four Tannery Brook Road

Somerville, MA

02144

617.718.9245
james@forbeslofts.com

The story goes like this. Urban Design & Development hired us to come up with a new corporate name. They signed a contract. They chose a name but funds got tight. We had to ultimately take them to small claims court, we won the judgment. Almost a year later they still haven’t paid.  You can interpret that anyway you like. To me it’s like stealing. 

Before you decide on purchasing one of their lofts at Davis Square, Somerville, MA or Forbes Park, Chelsea, MA you may want to think twice. Their actions and brand image speak loud and clear. I’m just happy I can count these unethical people on one hand.

James Bill, karma will get you in the end.

August 30, 2007

Bartering Organizations - Questions to Ask Before Joining

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 8:43 am

See previous article about bartering for background.

There are about 500 bartering organizations in North America.  How do you know which ones to join?  There is no universal RIGHT answer here, you just need to ask the questions, and see if the answers meet your bartering needs.

First off, membership fees are generally low monthly (occasionally annual) fees.  It generally pays off to be a member of more than one organization, as it increases the likelihood of finding someone who can provide the service/good you need.   

1) Is it regional, national or international?

Some exchanges are limited to cities in a specific city/county - others nationwide.

2) How many members does it have?

You want to make sure that there is enough to go around.  Not all businesses in an exchange will want to barter at any given time.

3) Which industries are the other members in?

You want to make sure that the industries represented are ones that you might require goods or services in, and ones that might need whatever you can provide.  Otherwise, you won’t be doing much bartering.

4)  What is the typical transaction size?

Different exchanges work on different scales, you want to find one that is in line with whatever you have in mind.

5) Are there barter consultants?

Some barter organizations offer barter consultants, who help broker the deal in an individualized fashion.  Others are more automated.

To find a bartering organization that works for you, contact the National Association of Trade Exchanges (NATE) or the International Reciprocal Trade Association.

Top Rated Books - Restaurant Management

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 8:41 am

Since so many of our clients are in the food service industry, I decided to research books that customers from Amazon.com rated 5 stars for Restaurant Management.  These are the books they recommended:

1. The Restaurant Managers Handbook: How to Set Up, Operate, and Manage a Financially Successful Food Service Operation by Douglas Robert Brown (Hardcover - Sep 3, 2002)

2. Running a Restaurant for Dummies by Michael Garvey, Heather Dismore, and Andrew Dismore (Paperback - Jul 9, 2004)

3. Restaurant Management: Customers, Operations, and Employees (3rd Edition) by Robert Christie Mill (Paperback - Jul 14, 2006)

4. Opening a Restaurant or Other Food Business Starter Kit: How to Prepare a Restaurant Business Plan and Feasibility Study by Sharon Fullen (Paperback - Dec 30, 2004)

5. The Encyclopedia of Restaurant Forms: A Complete Kit of Ready-to-use Checklists, Worksheets, And Training AIDS for a Successful Food Service Operation by Douglas Robert Brown (Hardcover - April 2004)

6. The Restaurant Dream? by Lee Simon (Paperback - May 16, 2006)

7. Restaurant Planning Guide by Peter Rainsford and David H. Bangs (Paperback - April 1, 1996)

8. 10 Steps to Successful Bar & Restaurant Management by Dr. Kirk Wakefield (Paperback - Dec 15, 1999)

9. Restaurant Financial Basics by Raymond S. Schmidgall, David K. Hayes, and Jack D. Ninemeier (Paperback - Oct 2, 2002)

10. The New Restaurant Entrepreneur: An Inside Look at Restaurant Deal-Making and Other Tales from the Culinary Trenches by Kep Sweeney (Paperback - Jun 1, 2004) – ok, so this one had a customer rating of 4.5 stars, but I couldn’t find any more 5 stars

Internet Commander - Garry Egan

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 12:53 am

I found this site today about a guy named Garry Egan. He calls himself the “Internet Commander”. Here is a bit from the site: 

“I am Garry Egan, Internet Commander. It takes a special professional to acquire the status of Internet Commander. An Internet Commander is one with a large area of expertise. Am I an expert in all areas of the internet? Pretty much.” 

Then he has this graphic of course:

                                    

                                       All Hail The…

 ic.jpg

I see these types of people all over the net and I scratch my head. First off branding is about solving the needs of the client. Not about boasting about yourself. The last thing a potential client wants to read is that. The brand image Garry Egan sends is that of an egotistical person, not someone who can solve my problems. 

Here is another excerpt: 

“An expert, practically, since birth, Garry has been writing code since age 11 and has working knowledge on all consumer development platforms, protocols, and deployment methodologies from terrestrial to satellite, and beyond.” 

Wow, an expert since birth huh. Imagine how picked on this kid was at age 11? Who writes “code” at age 11? Well good for you Garry, at age 11 I was playing baseball, football and other fun games kids play. I liked being a kid. But thanks for patting your self on the back. If you have to brag about yourself you might as well find a new career path. That’s no way to establish a brand identity or brand image.

But then look at his logo: 

garry-logo.jpg 

Now look at Google’s Logo:

 google.gif

Hmm, does it strangely resemble Google? Maybe that’s because it appears he used all of Google’s color schemes and fonts? Personally we recommend differentiation and positioning to our clients not blending in with the pack or “copying” others. Just our humble opinion of course.

You may want to research the “Internet Commander” Garry Egan before signing on with him…

August 29, 2007

Video Vigilante - Jimmy Justice

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 11:24 pm

I saw a great video about this guy called “Jimmy Justice” today. What he does is follow around parking enforcement in New York to catch them parking illegally. Very funny stuff, check it out: 

Funny Video

Vigilante Video 

I also took a picture of one of these people in one of my previous posts:

parking-1.JPG  Here’s the deal. If you are a parking enforcer don’t break the law. Don’t stand in line waiting for lunch while you’re parked in front of a fire hydrant. It makes you look bad and the city you work for. We call that brand image.

Will a Fed rate-cutting program bail out Wall Street?

Filed under: Uncategorized — Prieur du Plessis @ 9:25 am

In my posting of August 17 I gave reasons why the Fed’s cut of the discount window rate on that day did not come as a surprise. Given the severity of the credit squeeze and the ramifications for the US economy at large, I also commented that a number of rate cuts in quick succession could not be ruled out.

BCA Research, the highly regarded Montreal-based economics research house, said last week: “… the Fed can be expected to ease aggressively if the economy appears headed towards recession”. The state of the US economy is therefore of critical importance for how monetary policy unfolds.

The next meeting of the Fed’s Open Market Committee is scheduled for September 18. Although not a perfect predictor, the 30-day Federal funds futures contract that expires in October 2007 seems to imply a Fed funds rate of 4.90% and is currently pricing in a 100% probability that the FOMC will decrease the target rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% at the September meeting.

30-DAY FED FUNDS FUTURES*

blog-1-f-29-aug.jpg

* The implied interest rate is obtained by subtracting the price of the October Fed funds futures contract from 100.
Source: www.cbot.com

Interestingly, just more than a week ago the implied Fed funds rate was as low as 4.78%, which would have argued for a 50 basis points rate reduction. The graph also shows that immediately prior to the meltdown of financial markets in July, there was no expectation of a rate cut in August or September.

Although the prospects of lower rates calmed some nerves and provided a boost for equities last week, the real question is what typically happens to stock prices subsequent to the commencement of a Fed rate-cutting program.

William Hester of Hussman Funds offered the following insight: “Since 1955 there have been 11 periods where the Fed lowered rates at least once after raising them multiple times. Average returns have been strong during these periods. Following the first interest rate cut, the S&P 500 advanced at annualized rates of 23.9% over the following 6 months, 18.3% over the following 12 months, and 18.7% over the following 18 months.

“Good returns followed nearly every instance that a rate cut took place at low valuations. In contrast, rich valuations have produced far more tepid returns. When the S&P 500 price/peak earnings ratio has been above 17, the market’s annualized return following the initial rate cut was –2.3% over the following 6 months, 5.9% over the following 12 months, and 6.2% over the following 18 months.

The chart below shows the average 6-month, 12-month and 18-month returns (annualized) following a first-time cut by the Fed. The two sets of bars on the left show the returns during periods when price/peak earnings ratios were less than 15 and in periods where the yield curve was either upward sloping or inverted. The two sets of bars on the right show both yield curve environments, but during periods when the price/peak earnings ratio was greater than 17.

blog-2-f-29-aug.jpg

Source: www.hussmanfunds.com (click here for here for a direct link to the full article)

Based on the evidence above, we probably find ourselves somewhere between the two sets of bars on the right, i.e. with a price/peak earnings ratio in excess of 17 and a yield curve that is slightly positive.

This brings us back to the original question: Will a Fed rate-cutting program bail out Wall Street? In my opinion easier monetary policy at best argues for mediocre returns, especially as the weaker economic environment starts threatening corporate earnings growth at a time when price/peak earnings ratios are not exactly at bargain levels. We have entered a difficult investment environment, and one should be careful not to dispel the possibility of further price declines. Be cautious.

Bartering - Relieve Cash Flow Strain & Get Referrals

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 7:43 am

Bartering removes the money element; thereby relieving strain on your cash flow.  You are a restaurant in need of advertising?  Great!  You provide catering at a big morning meeting and, voila, you get barter credit which you can use to get those flyers - and maybe also a paint job. 

 A key side-effect (and the reason some businesses engage in barter in the first place) relates to the referral opportunity.  Many businesses which barter regularly find that 10% or more of their new customers will come from referrals from other companies they bartered with.

In traditional barter, you would need to find someone who has what you need, and needs what you have.  Thankfully, in today’s world, there are a number of organizations which make bartering much more efficient.  See below for details.

Barter is done on a dollar credit - to dollar credit basis, and is taxable as though it was a money transaction.  However, it saves you from having to dig up the cash when you need.

As already mentioned, barter can be, and is, done in a wide range of industries.  Examples include:  Legal services, Food Services, Healthcare, Insurance, Cleaning Services, Marketing, Auto Repair, etc.

There are about 500 bartering exchange organizations in North America.  To find one near you, contact the National Association of Trade Exchanges (NATE) or the International Reciprocal Trade Association.

August 28, 2007

Yankees Fans Don’t Support The Brand

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 11:54 pm

I love being a Red Sox fan. Let me tell you why. No matter what happens to the Red Sox I’m committed to the brand. I’ve never booed the Sox. Even when they stunk and had the worst luck of any major league team fans like me always supported them. That’s a strong brand.

sully_header_175.jpg

As Sox fans we feel for the players, we don’t expect anything but hope for the best. And we love to beat the Yankees. Here’s why: 

  1. The Yankees legally cheat. Yup, they can sign whoever they want and pay whatever they want because they are one of the richest teams in all of sports. It’s not like Football where there is a salary cap. The Yankees actually spend more on one player than other teams spend on the entire team. This gives them an unfair advantage, but it’s all within the rules. So when they lose their fans get REALLY upset. Why? Because they expect to win. Watch a Yankee game and listen to their fans boo their own players on a regular basis.
  2. Because the fans feel entitled they neglect the brand. This is bad for brand image and awareness.
  3. New Yorkers have too much going on. They have the Mets, Nets, Knicks, Jets, Giants, Islanders, Devils and probably a soccer team or two. They can’t be committed to any one brand.

So New York fans take some advice from a Sox fan. Love your team and its players no matter what. It will make you feel better as you lose yet another year.sposter01.jpg

Miss Teen South Carolina, Umm, Ahhh, South Africa, The Iraq?

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 4:15 pm

Hey, we all know that beauty queens aren’t the brightest bulbs on the tree and sometimes their answers to the big question are downright funny. I had Miss Teen South Carolina winning this thing…

missteen.jpg

…that is until her question and answer came into play: 

Question: Why one-fifth of Americans cannot locate the United States on a map? 

Answer:“I personally believe that U.S. Americans are unable to do so because, uhmmm, some people out there in our nation don’t have maps and uh, I believe that our, I, education like such as uh, South Africa, and uh, the Iraq, everywhere like such as, and I believe that they should, uhhh, our education over here in the US should help the US, uh, should help South Africa, it should help the Iraq and the Asian countries so we will be able to build up our future, for us.”

Umm, huh? Why can’t one fifth of Americans find our country? That’s really the sad part. Has America not branded itself well enough or is our education system really that bad?

Hey Second Grade Teachers….teach kids where the hell we are for God’s sake! She’s a doll though, good luck!

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